July 2026 National Insights Market Report
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week and the markets are forecasting a 40% chance that they hike short term interest rates. The likelihood of Fed rate increases in 2026 is still climbing. That’s one of the reasons that mortgage rates have surged to their highest levels in a year.
For most of the first half of 2026, conditions were modestly favorable for home sales to grow. Through the end of June, our count of home sales was 4% ahead of 2025. As mortgage rates have lurched back into the upper 6s recently, that is likely to slow buyer demand somewhat.
Data on the labor front could be a touch more favorable. Unemployment remains low, and we’re maybe seeing some slight improvements in hiring. The job growth rate has been very low recently, as companies resume hiring, hopefully this year, that should improve home sales with more work-driven relocations.
Full July 2026 Insights Report Here
In the second quarter we discussed the “wealth effect” from stock markets at all time highs that helped buoy home buyer demand. In fact, Compass captured a lot of media attention last week with the news of the AI-company wealth-driven bidding wars in San Francisco. In June we counted 44 home sales in the city that closed at least $1 million above list price. That’s a shocking number and what’s more interesting is how concentrated this AI-boom is to the city. So far we haven’t been able to measure that demand spreading further out in the Bay Area or in other tech markets around the country. It’s extreme and it’s very local.
Also in this month’s National Economic Update, we have the latest data on the American homeowner’s very strong financial position, plus the latest on home prices and our inventory forecast for the rest of the year.
Our goal is always to help you understand what’s happening in the market right now, so you can make the best decisions.
July 2026 National Insights Report created by Mike Simonsen, Chief Economist | Compass International Holdings
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With over 25 years of experience in real estate, master planned community development, sales, marketing, and VIP customer care, Anne is known for her exceptional service and integrity. Her Arizona family roots trace back to the territorial days, providing her with a unique perspective on the local real estate market. With a "can-do" attitude and unwavering commitment to excellence, Anne goes above and beyond to protect her clients' interests and provide them with an outstanding experience.
